This should consist of a set of rules to follow in certain scenarios. Remember that every match is different and you will need to plan for those random moments such as goals in quick succession, red cards, injuries etc.

What would you do when using the Lay And Insure system if:

The favourite scores 2 goals in the opening 10 minutes of the match?
There is an early red card for the underdog?
You are watching the game and the underdog looks like going to be shredded apart by the favourites?

The answers to these and many more similar questions should be decided before you get involved in trading live football matches. Most importantly, you should be consistent in applying the

Choosing one approach and sticking to it

Lay And Insure – Selection process

In order to make this strategy work, you will need to have a good selection process and maintain a good strike rate.

The perfect tool for the job

What if you could identify the most profitable teams to lay at home in the matter of a few seconds? And how about checking the oppositions’ profitability when playing away from home? What correct scores should you choose for the insurance?

This is where the Lay And Insure Money Trends come in handy.

There are two tables that show home and away favourites that have not been worth backing (at home/away respectively) in their last 20 matches. Furthermore, they show theirs Over 2.5, Both Teams To Score and win markets profit/loss performance.

In other words, they show you quickly what outcomes would have made or lose you money. This information can be used for backing insurance correct score cover for this method and we will go over some examples below.

Money Trends – Lay And Insure Home Favourites

These betting money trends have been designed specifically for the Lay And Insure betting & trading system – lay home favourites. The matches are sorted by the descending H_Lay figures (yellow frame in the table above). These indicate the most profitable teams to lay at home in their last 20 home matches.

The selections in this table consist of the away teams that are not showing significant losses when laying them in their last 20 away matches.

The black rectangle shows B365 back odds for home wins (the exchange’s lay prices are very similar). We include only the home teams withing the 1.3 and 2.7 win odds range.

Furthermore, we provide Over 2.5 goals, Both Teams To Score, home and away wins (home at home and away when away) profit/loss figures for their last 20 matches. These are perfect to identify potential correct scores for insurance of your lay the favourite football bets and trades. We will cover these in examples below.

Lay Home Favourite – Analysis

When looking at the money trends, you will quickly spot some outstanding numbers – big losses and profits (highlighted darker colours) for each of the teams in all O2.5, BTTS and win markets. Let’s look at the first match from the table:

1. Leixoes vs Mafra

Leixoes were available to lay at around Evens and their home record for this bet was staggering 100 points of profit (to 10 points bets). They also showed a big loss when backing over 2.5 goals and a small loss from BTTS markets in their last 20 home matches.

Mafra showed a small profit when backed in both Over 2.5 goals and BTTS markets. Backing or laying them away from home would have resulted in a tiny loss.

Recommendation: Lay Leixoes + Back 2-0 and 2-1

2. Zweigen Kanazawa vs Tokyo Verdy

The money was made when laying Kanazawa, backing under 2.5 goals and both teams to score. Tokyo verdy doesn’t seem to have any outstanding profit/loss trends.

Recommendation: Lay Zweigen Kanazawa + Back 2-0 and 2-1

3. Sporting KC vs Orlando City

Laying Sporting in their last 20 home matches would have made you a nice profit on its own. There is a question mark about Orlando City’s away performance (not winning many matches), however, they show a good profit in the BTTS markets.

Recommendation: Lay Sporting KC + Back 2-0 and 2-1

4. Machida Zelvia vs V-Varen Nagasaki

The home teams show significant losses when backing them across all markets, whilst the away team shows good profit numbers for O2.5 and BTTS. That’s very encouraging for laying Machida.

Recommendation: Lay Machida Zelvia + Back 2-0 and 2-1

5. Lindome vs Torns

Laying Lindome may not look as good as in the matches above, but they also show a healthy profit. The O2.5 goals P/L figures don’t favour any of the outcomes. However, the BTTS – Yes would have been losing you money in the past (also in the H2H matches between these two teams). 2-0 and 3-0 was a common score in the matches between these two sides.

Recommendation: Lay Lindome + Back 2-0 and 3-0

Results

There is no point bragging about results from one day. Nevertheless, it was a good day for this method with these particular matches.

Tammeka was another selection from that day, from another selection process.

Method Execution

Let’s have a look at the more technical point of this method – its execution. There are two approaches that you can try:

Betting
Trading

Both can be done on a betting exchange or with an online bookmaker. Obviously, if you wish to trade using a bookmaker you will need to use one that offers in-play cash-out option on both match odds and correct score markets.

Betting Example

The most convenient way of betting is at betting exchanges such as Betfair.

1. Place Lay bet

Lay Favourite in Football System — Lay Sporting Kansas City @ 1.85

2. Place back 2-0 and 2-1 outcomes in the correct score market

Lay And Insure - Back correct scores — Lay And Insure – Back correct scores

Kansas lost 1-2 and the profit/loss from this match looked like this:

Lay And Insure - Lay favourite profit — Lay And Insure – Lay favourite profit, back CSs loss

The total stake across both markets was just over £45, whilst the profit was £27.2. This is equivalent of the odds of 1.65.

Money Trends – Lay And Insure Away Favourites

We can use the same trends to lay away favourite in football and cover them in the correct score market.

Lay Away Favourite And cover Correct Score system — Lay away favourite and cover correct scores using Lay And Insure money trends

At the time of writing this article, there was only one outstanding match that was worth looking at. Vikingur were at around Evens playing away from home. Looking at their A_Lay figure, it’s been worth to lay them in their last 20 away matches.

The market expected the game to go over 2.5 goals (priced at 1.50) and both teams scoring (1.44). However, backing them at those prices, even in those highest goals scoring leagues makes it difficult to turn a profit in the long term. The A_O25 and A_BTTS seem to confirm that showing losses in the Vikingur’s away matches.

Trading Example

The main focus in this match will be on laying the away favourite in the match odds market. That’s where the biggest part of the stake will be invested.

Placing trades pre-match

Fylkir vs Vikingur Lay Away — Laying Vikingur for £42 to win £35.

My intention is to hedge the lay trade for a profit when Vikingur concede or there is draw late in the match.

The following scores are backed for the insurance:

Fylkir vs Vikingur correct score insurance — Backing 0-2 and 1-2 to cover the intial stake from the match odds market.

The stakes on the correct scores are relatively small, but they should allow some profit opportunities in most of the cases when the trade goes against me (i.e. the favourite leading later in the match).

Hedging Lay The Favourite

Fylkir took the lead in the 28th minute and Vikingur was trading at 4.7/4.9, which was high enough to secure half of the full profit from laying the away team.

fylkir 1-0 hedge lay vikingur — Fylkir 1-0, hedge lay Vikingur trade

There was still of course the Correct Score market with a small exposure on 0-2 (which was now dead) and 1-2 which could also build up some extra profit. Nevertheless, a small profit has already been secured from this match no matter the final score.

Hedging Correct Scores

Vikingur equalized just after 60th minute in the match and 1-2 was available to hedge at around 4. However, having chosen this match to trade in the correct score market, there was not much interest and liquidity in order for me to have my hedge bet matched.

A few minutes later, Fylkir retook the lead and made it 2-1. This also led to my second correct score option (1-2) becoming not much use to me anymore.

You must remember 2 main dangers to hedging your in-play trades: suspended markets and lack of liquidity. Both will leave you incredibly frustrated, as they usually will lose you money.

There is something that you can do about them though. One of the solutions is to use current line under/over goals markets after the 75th min for hedging the current scores. The odds for both outcome e.g. 1-1 and under 2.5 goals will steam together at similar rates.