Shifted Form Money Trends

Welcome to the Shifted Form Money Trends. On this page, you will find tables with money trends that identify teams with solid & profitable long term trends followed by a dip or poor recent run of results for a given outcome.

For example, they will identify teams that have been historically very profitable to back over 2.5 goals at home or away, however, in their last 6 home/away matches they produced many under 2.5 goals outcomes.

All teams experience strange runs of results (e.g. a few matches with 0 or 1 goals) but their performances usually go back to normal soon afterwards.

Once a team is experiencing that unusual trend (e.g. a profitable team for backing over 2.5 goals in their home matches, seeing their last 4 or 5 out of last 6 home matches finishing in under 2.5 goals), the odds for over 2.5 goals will often drift past their usual odds (average odds) as punters will not fancy many goals given the recent poor run. This can be analyzed further e.g. in the Money Trends Radar to determine whether it’s worth backing goals and whether the offered odds are attractive or not.

We currently offer the Shifted Form Money Trends for 5 goals markets only and have been successfully using them to trade in-play goals markets.

Headers Explanations

HA – Shifted Form trends for either Home or Away Team
ML – Major leagues match (1) or lower league (0)
4L – 4 consecutive losers for a given market at home/away respectively for H/A teams (1 for yes, 0 for no)
5L – 5 consecutive losers for a given market at home/away respectively for H/A teams (1 for yes, 0 for no)
6L – 6 consecutive losers for a given market at home/away respectively for H/A teams (1 for yes, 0 for no)
PL1 – profit/loss figures for H or A team in 20 matches before the bad run of form (matches 7-26) at home/away respectively
PL2 – profit/loss figures from last 20 home or away matches of the opponent team (medium term trends from the MTR tool).
P20 – Sum of the PL1 and PL2
T1AO – Shifted Form’s average odds from matches 7-26 for a “shifted” team
Odds – Current available odds for the outcome

Shifted Form Money Trends - Detailed, graphical explanation

Let’s look at the following match:

We are analyzing the over 2.5 goals trends and the shifted form has been identified for the home team – PEC Zwolle. That means that in their last 6 home league matches, they have had at least 4 under 2.5 goals results.We can examine the full stats breakdown at the Money Trends Radar:

We can see that in their last 6 home league matches, 5 of them finished in less than 3 goals. However, we also see the summary of all of those 20 home matches – backing the over 2.5 goals option would have brought a tiny loss. Another important piece of information is the average odds – over 2.5 goals was available to back on average at 1.53.

The Shifted Form Money Trends analyze 20 matches before the last 6 home matches (i.e. past home matches 7-26) and calculates the usual profit/loss figures for that period of time, as well as the averages odds.

In this case, PEC Zwolle was a profitable team to back the over 2.5 goals at home (55.40 points profit to 10 points level stakes) before that current last 6 matches (bag run of under goals outcomes). Furthermore, the average odds in those matches for the O2.5 goals was 1.53 (T1AO field).

We can also spot the current O2.5 goals odds of 2.05, which is a lot higher to the recent O2.5 goals averages and the T1AO value. This difference in odds can be explained by analyzing this match further:

The PL2 number from the tables above is the current money trends for their opponents (Heracles) in their last 20 away matches. (Many under 2.5 goals matches and low O2.5 goals odds)
Zwolle’s poor O2.5 goals record in their last 6 home matches (Picked up by the Shifted Form Money Trends)
Not best O2.5 goals in the last 6 all matches for both teams.

Those are the main 3 factors for the high O2.5 goals odds for this match and most of the punters will not fancy goals in this match.

However, there just may be some value in backing the O2.5 goals at this price given the home teams shifted home form and profitable money trends. Furthermore, you can analyze the League and Long Term money trends and H2H record, which is half decent for these two teams.