Derby County vs Millwall - Over 1.5 Goals (PRO Data Analysis)

ENGLAND - Championship

2025-02-22
12:30:00

Derby County⁷

Millwall³

Pride Park Stadium (Derby) (Derby)

E. Bell

2.553.043.58

Over 1.5 Goals @ 1.66

Injuries & Suspensions

Derby County

Millwall

No absences...

K. Wilson

Hamstring

App: 23 (17), G: 2

R. Leonard

Calf Injury

App: 26 (26), G: 0

C. Nelson

ACL Knee Injury

App: 27 (27), G: 2

C. Taylor

Hamstring

App: 12 (4), G: 1

N. Phillips

Knock

App: 21 (13), G: 0

D. McNamara

Knee Injury

App: 13 (7), G: 0

Championship Standings

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPtsForm

1Leeds United33219368204872WWWWD

2Sheffield United33226547232470WWWWL

3Burnley34181424393468WDWWD

4Sunderland331711550302062LWDWD

5Blackburn Rovers33156123931851WWLWL

6Bristol City34121394338549WDWLD

7West Bromwich Albion331115742311148DLWLW

8Coventry City33138124441347WWLWW

9Watford33136144348-545WLDLL

10Sheffield Wednesday34129134654-845LLWLD

11Norwich City331111115145644DLDWW

12Middlesbrough33128135145644LLLLL

13Queens Park Rangers331111113941-244WLWLL

14Millwall331012113334-142DDLWW

15Preston North End3391593539-442DDWLW

16Oxford United33911133447-1338LDLDD

17Swansea City33107163446-1237LLWLL

18Portsmouth3399154155-1436WWLDL

19Stoke City32811133140-935WLWDL

20Cardiff City32711143554-1932DLLWD

21Hull City3279163243-1130DLLWL

22Derby County3378183346-1329LDDLL

23Plymouth Argyle33611163567-3229DLWWD

24Luton Town3377193153-2228DLLDL

LONG TERM MONEY TRENDS HOME/AWAY (LAST 3 SEASONS)

Derby County's home matches long term money trends (last 3 seasons)

No of matchesProfit/LossAverage OddsROI %

40.291.417.25%

Derby County's home matches when WIN odds between 2.4 and 2.7

01-12-24

Derby County³1 - 2⁽¹⁾Sheffield Wednesday⁴1.50.44W

27-11-24

Derby County³1 - 2⁽⁰⁾Swansea City²1.50.46W

05-10-24

Derby County³2 - 0⁽⁰⁾Queens Park Rangers³1.50.39W

16-03-24

Derby County³1 - 0⁽¹⁾Bolton Wanderers³1.5-1L

Millwall's away matches long term money trends (last 3 seasons)

No of matchesProfit/LossAverage OddsROI %

100.41.494%

Millwall's away matches when WIN odds between 3.3 and 3.8

18-02-25

Preston North End²1 - 1⁽⁰⁾Millwall²1.50.68W

28-01-25

Portsmouth^2(A)0 - 1⁽⁰⁾Millwall^2(A)1.5-1L

04-01-25

Sheffield Wednesday²2 - 2⁽²⁾Millwall²1.50.53W

26-12-24

Norwich City⁴2 - 1⁽⁰⁾Millwall⁴1.50.42W

09-11-24

Stoke City^2(A)1 - 1⁽⁰⁾Millwall²1.50.43W

21-09-24

Queens Park Rangers³1 - 1⁽⁰⁾Millwall⁶1.50.48W

06-04-24

Huddersfield Town⁴1 - 0⁽¹⁾Millwall⁴1.5-1L

05-03-24

Blackburn Rovers^2(A)1 - 1⁽⁰⁾Millwall²1.50.42W

01-01-24

Bristol City^2(A)0 - 1⁽¹⁾Millwall²1.5-1L

28-02-23

Luton Town^2(A)2 - 2⁽¹⁾Millwall^2(A)1.50.44W

MEDIUM TERM MONEY TRENDS - LAST 10 HOME/AWAY MATCHES

Derby County's home matches (last 10 all matches)

No of matchesProfit/LossAverage OddsROI %

10-1.491.42-14.9%

Derby County's last 10 home matches

11-02-25

Derby County^2(A)0 - 0⁽⁰⁾Oxford United⁶1.5-1L

01-02-25

Derby County⁶0 - 1⁽⁰⁾Sheffield United⁷1.5-1L

21-01-25

Derby County²0 - 1⁽⁰⁾Sunderland³1.5-1L

18-01-25

Derby County³0 - 2⁽⁰⁾Watford³1.50.39W

29-12-24

Derby County²0 - 1⁽¹⁾Leeds United^2(A)1.5-1L

26-12-24

Derby County⁵2 - 1⁽¹⁾West Bromwich Albion³1.50.53W

13-12-24

Derby County^2(A)4 - 0⁽⁰⁾Portsmouth²1.50.43W

01-12-24

Derby County³1 - 2⁽¹⁾Sheffield Wednesday⁴1.50.44W

27-11-24

Derby County³1 - 2⁽⁰⁾Swansea City²1.50.46W

09-11-24

Derby County^2(A)1 - 1⁽⁰⁾Plymouth Argyle³1.50.26W

Millwall's away matches (last 10 all matches)

No of matchesProfit/LossAverage OddsROI %

10-0.851.51-8.5%

Millwall's last 10 away matches.

18-02-25

Preston North End²1 - 1⁽⁰⁾Millwall²1.50.68W

12-02-25

Plymouth Argyle²5 - 1⁽²⁾Millwall³1.50.59W

28-01-25

Portsmouth^2(A)0 - 1⁽⁰⁾Millwall^2(A)1.5-1L

25-01-25

Luton Town³0 - 1⁽⁰⁾Millwall³1.5-1L

04-01-25

Sheffield Wednesday²2 - 2⁽²⁾Millwall²1.50.53W

29-12-24

Coventry City²0 - 0⁽⁰⁾Millwall^2(A)1.5-1L

26-12-24

Norwich City⁴2 - 1⁽⁰⁾Millwall⁴1.50.42W

14-12-24

Middlesbrough³1 - 0⁽⁰⁾Millwall²1.5-1L

30-11-24

Oxford United³1 - 1⁽¹⁾Millwall⁶1.50.5W

09-11-24

Stoke City^2(A)1 - 1⁽⁰⁾Millwall²1.50.43W

SHORT TERM MONEY TRENDS - LAST 6 MATCHES

Derby County's all matches (last 6 matches)

No of matchesProfit/LossAverage OddsROI %

6-1.661.44-27.67%

Derby County's all matches - last 6

14-02-25

Queens Park Rangers^2(A)4 - 0⁽⁰⁾Derby County²1.50.56W

11-02-25

Derby County^2(A)0 - 0⁽⁰⁾Oxford United⁶1.5-1L

08-02-25

Norwich City⁶1 - 1⁽¹⁾Derby County⁶1.50.24W

01-02-25

Derby County⁶0 - 1⁽⁰⁾Sheffield United⁷1.5-1L

25-01-25

Cardiff City³2 - 1⁽⁰⁾Derby County³1.50.54W

21-01-25

Derby County²0 - 1⁽⁰⁾Sunderland³1.5-1L

Millwall's all matches (last 6 matches)

No of matchesProfit/LossAverage OddsROI %

60.321.595.33%

Millwall's all matches - last 6

18-02-25

Preston North End²1 - 1⁽⁰⁾Millwall²1.50.68W

15-02-25

Millwall^2(A)1 - 1⁽⁰⁾West Bromwich Albion²1.50.39W

12-02-25

Plymouth Argyle²5 - 1⁽²⁾Millwall³1.50.59W

01-02-25

Millwall³2 - 1⁽⁰⁾Queens Park Rangers⁶1.50.66W

28-01-25

Portsmouth^2(A)0 - 1⁽⁰⁾Millwall^2(A)1.5-1L

25-01-25

Luton Town³0 - 1⁽⁰⁾Millwall³1.5-1L

HEAD TO HEAD + LEAGUE STANDINGS

H2H Matches

No of matchesProfit/LossAverage OddsROI %

21.091.5554.5%

H2H matches - last 6

19-10-24

Millwall¹³1 - 1⁽²⁾Derby County¹³1.50.43W

23-02-22

Derby County³1 - 2⁽¹⁾Millwall⁷1.50.66W

Championship Standings

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPtsForm

1Leeds United33219368204872WWWWD

2Sheffield United33226547232470WWWWL

3Burnley34181424393468WDWWD

4Sunderland331711550302062LWDWD

5Blackburn Rovers33156123931851WWLWL

6Bristol City34121394338549WDWLD

7West Bromwich Albion331115742311148DLWLW

8Coventry City33138124441347WWLWW

9Watford33136144348-545WLDLL

10Sheffield Wednesday34129134654-845LLWLD

11Norwich City331111115145644DLDWW

12Middlesbrough33128135145644LLLLL

13Queens Park Rangers331111113941-244WLWLL

14Millwall331012113334-142DDLWW

15Preston North End3391593539-442DDWLW

16Oxford United33911133447-1338LDLDD

17Swansea City33107163446-1237LLWLL

18Portsmouth3399154155-1436WWLDL

19Stoke City32811133140-935WLWDL

20Cardiff City32711143554-1932DLLWD

21Hull City3279163243-1130DLLWL

22Derby County3378183346-1329LDDLL

23Plymouth Argyle33611163567-3229DLWWD

24Luton Town3377193153-2228DLLDL

POISSON DISTRUBITION & 5% POISSON VALUE BRACKETS (LEAGUE, HOME, AWAY)

Last 6 matches POISSON DISTRIBUTION VALUE parameter for this market is: -2%

LAST 6 MATCHES POISSON DISTRIBUTION MODEL

Poisson Prob. (Eq. odds)Value (Recent Odds)Home xGAway xG

0.58 (1.72)-0.02 (1.66)0.311.64

Championship Profit/Loss figures for the POISSON VALUE bracket (-0.05 - 0.01 )

No of matchesProfit/LossAverage OddsROI %

131-4.231.31-3.23%

Home + Away Poisson Value Brackets Breakdown

Derby County's Profit/Loss figures for the POISSON VALUE bracket (-0.05 - 0.01 )

No of matchesProfit/LossAverage OddsROI %

10.331.3333.00%

24-08-24

^-0.04Watford⁶2 - 1⁽¹⁾Derby County⁶1.50.33W

Millwall's Profit/Loss figures for the POISSON VALUE bracket (-0.05 - 0.01 )

No of matchesProfit/LossAverage OddsROI %

12-5.161.42-43.00%

25-01-25

^-0.02Luton Town³0 - 1⁽⁰⁾Millwall³1.5-1L

14-12-24

^0.00Middlesbrough³1 - 0⁽⁰⁾Millwall²1.5-1L

17-08-24

^-0.04Bristol City³4 - 3⁽²⁾Millwall³1.50.45W

03-02-24

^-0.02Hull City¹⁴1 - 0⁽⁰⁾Millwall⁶1.5-1L

26-12-23

^-0.01Millwall^2(A)2 - 0⁽¹⁾Queens Park Rangers²1.50.47W

23-12-23

^-0.04Stoke City⁵0 - 0⁽⁰⁾Millwall⁶1.5-1L

09-12-23

^-0.02Cardiff City⁶1 - 0⁽¹⁾Millwall⁶1.5-1L

02-12-23

^0.00Millwall^2(A)1 - 1⁽¹⁾Sunderland²1.50.31W

25-11-23

^-0.04Millwall¹³0 - 3⁽¹⁾Coventry City¹³1.50.36W

03-10-23

^-0.03Plymouth Argyle^2(A)0 - 2⁽¹⁾Millwall²1.50.25W

07-04-23

^-0.04Millwall⁵0 - 0⁽⁰⁾Luton Town⁵1.5-1L

01-04-23

^-0.01West Bromwich Albion¹⁶0 - 0⁽⁰⁾Millwall¹³1.5-1L

ELO RATINGS - LEAGUE TRENDS

Last 3 seasons - SIMILAR ELO Difference

No of matchesProfit/LossAverage OddsROI %

128-3.371.34-2.63%

ELO Ratings Historical Chart (Last 3-4 seasons)

ELO ratings difference for this fixture: -88 - SIMILAR DIFFERENCE (PAST MATCHES OF BOTH TEAMS)

Derby County (ELO: 1383) home matches with SIMILAR ELO Difference

No of matchesProfit/LossAverage OddsROI %

41.281.3232%

18-01-25

^-64Derby County³0 - 2Watford³1.50.39W

26-10-24

^-84Derby County³1 - 1Hull City²1.50.31W

28-09-24

^-108Derby County⁶2 - 3Norwich City⁶1.50.24W

31-08-24

^-96Derby County³3 - 0Bristol City⁶1.50.34W

Millwall (ELO 1471) away matches with SIMILAR ELO Difference

No of matchesProfit/LossAverage OddsROI %

8-0.531.48-6.63%

12-02-25

^-106Plymouth Argyle²5 - 1Millwall³1.50.59W

30-11-24

^-104Oxford United³1 - 1Millwall⁶1.50.5W

01-10-24

^-84Cardiff City^2(A)1 - 0Millwall²1.5-1L

20-01-24

^-97Queens Park Rangers⁵2 - 0Millwall⁶1.50.48W

10-04-23

^-87Hull City^2(A)1 - 0Millwall²1.5-1L

11-02-23

^-67Queens Park Rangers⁶1 - 2Millwall⁶1.50.43W

21-01-23

^-92Cardiff City^2(A)0 - 1Millwall⁶1.5-1L

03-12-22

^-78Sunderland²¹3 - 0Millwall²⁰1.50.47W

SAME NUMBER OF REST DAYS IN THE PAST - RECENT MATCHES

Derby County's all matches (last 8 matches)

No of matchesProfit/LossAverage OddsROI %

2-21.31-100%

10-04-24

Wycombe Wanderers^2(A)0 - 0Derby County⁷1.5-1L

07-05-23

Sheffield Wednesday⁷1 - 0Derby County⁷1.5-1L

Millwall's all matches (last 8 matches)

No of matchesProfit/LossAverage OddsROI %

8-1.941.5-24.25%

12-02-25

Plymouth Argyle²5 - 1Millwall³1.50.59W

01-02-25

Millwall³2 - 1Queens Park Rangers⁶1.50.66W

25-01-25

Luton Town³0 - 1Millwall³1.5-1L

11-12-24

Millwall³0 - 1Sheffield United^2(A)1.5-1L

23-10-24

Millwall³1 - 0Plymouth Argyle³1.5-1L

05-10-24

West Bromwich Albion³0 - 0Millwall³1.5-1L

31-08-24

Millwall³3 - 0Sheffield Wednesday³1.50.36W

17-08-24

Bristol City³4 - 3Millwall³1.50.45W

HOW DID THEY DO THIS TIME IN LAST YEARS IN THIS COMPETITION (Last 4 Seasons)

Derby County's all matches (last 8 matches)

No of matchesProfit/LossAverage OddsROI %

3-1.341.49-44.67%

26-02-22

Luton Town^2(A)1 - 0Derby County²1.5-1L

23-02-22

Derby County³1 - 2Millwall⁷1.50.66W

19-02-22

Derby County⁶1 - 0Peterborough United²1.5-1L

Millwall's all matches (last 8 matches)

No of matchesProfit/LossAverage OddsROI %

70.361.465.14%

24-02-24

Southampton³1 - 2Millwall⁶1.50.2W

17-02-24

Millwall²0 - 2Sheffield Wednesday³1.50.48W

25-02-23

Stoke City³0 - 1Millwall³1.5-1L

21-02-23

Millwall²1 - 1Burnley^2(A)1.50.57W

18-02-23

Millwall³3 - 2Sheffield United²1.50.45W

26-02-22

Millwall^2(A)1 - 0Sheffield United²1.5-1L

23-02-22

Derby County³1 - 2Millwall⁷1.50.66W

League Trends By Game Week

Over 1.5 Goals distribution by rounds (Last 100 rounds)

Leagues Seasons Stats (FT Goals + Over 1.5 Goals)

Championship Full-Time Goals Averages Seasons Summary

3 seasons AVGCurrent season AVGLast 100 matches AVGLast 30 matches AVG

2.532.472.432.33

Full-Time Goals Averages seasons breakdown

2024/2025

Championship3962.47

2023/2024

Championship5572.67

2022/2023

Championship5562.42

2021/2022

Championship5572.50

Championship Over 1.5 Goals Averages Seasons Summary

3 seasons AVGCurrent season AVGLast 100 matches AVGLast 30 matches AVG

72.09%1.3972.22%1.3873%1.3773.33%1.36

Over 1.5 Goals Averages seasons breakdown

2024/2025

Championship39672.22% 1.38

2023/2024

Championship55774.51% 1.34

2022/2023

Championship55669.96% 1.43

2021/2022

Championship55771.81% 1.39

Leagues Seasons Stats (1st & 2nd Half Goals)

Championship First-Half Goals Averages Seasons Summary

3 seasons AVGCurrent season AVGLast 100 matches AVGLast 30 matches AVG

1.121.090.930.98

First Half Goals Averages seasons breakdown

2024/2025

Championship3961.09

2023/2024

Championship5571.23

2022/2023

Championship5561.10

2021/2022

Championship5571.02

Championship Second Half Goals Averages Seasons Summary

3 seasons AVGCurrent season AVGLast 100 matches AVGLast 30 matches AVG

1.421.391.41.45

Second Half Goals Averages seasons breakdown

2024/2025

Championship3961.39

2023/2024

Championship5571.44

2022/2023

Championship5561.33

2021/2022

Championship5571.49

League Positions - Stats

Last 2 seasons - Similar League Positions Matches

No of matchesProfit/LossAverage OddsROI %

180.931.375.17%

Last 2 seasons - 22 vs 14 in the table

No of matchesProfit/LossAverage OddsROI %

31.091.3636.33%

Teams VS similar league position +/- 1 position STATS

Derby County matches against table positions: 13,14,15

No of matchesProfit/LossAverage OddsROI %

20.91.4545%

01-12-24

¹⁵Derby County³1 - 2¹³Sheffield Wednesday⁴1.50.44W

27-11-24

¹⁴Derby County³1 - 2¹⁵Swansea City²1.50.46W

Millwall matches against table positions: 22,23,24

No of matchesProfit/LossAverage OddsROI %

8-0.61.5-7.5%

12-02-25

²⁴Plymouth Argyle²5 - 1¹⁴Millwall³1.50.59W

25-01-25

²³Luton Town³0 - 1¹⁷Millwall³1.5-1L

01-10-24

²⁴Cardiff City^2(A)1 - 0¹⁵Millwall²1.5-1L

06-04-24

²²Huddersfield Town⁴1 - 0²⁰Millwall⁴1.5-1L

01-04-24

²⁴Rotherham United^2(A)2 - 1¹⁶Millwall²1.50.48W

20-01-24

²³Queens Park Rangers⁵2 - 0¹⁶Millwall⁶1.50.48W

11-11-23

²⁴Sheffield Wednesday⁶0 - 4¹⁸Millwall⁶1.50.52W

28-04-23

²³Blackpool⁵2 - 3⁷Millwall⁵1.50.33W

YOUR TEXT

Derby County vs Millwall - Over 1.5 Goals (PRO Data Analysis)

ENGLAND - Championship

Injuries & Suspensions

Derby County's home matches long term money trends (last 3 seasons)

Derby County's home matches when WIN odds between 2.4 and 2.7

Millwall's away matches long term money trends (last 3 seasons)

Millwall's away matches when WIN odds between 3.3 and 3.8

Derby County's home matches (last 10 all matches)

Derby County's last 10 home matches

Millwall's away matches (last 10 all matches)

Millwall's last 10 away matches.

Derby County's all matches (last 6 matches)

Derby County's all matches - last 6

Millwall's all matches (last 6 matches)

Millwall's all matches - last 6

H2H Matches

H2H matches - last 6

LAST 6 MATCHES POISSON DISTRIBUTION MODEL

Championship Profit/Loss figures for the POISSON VALUE bracket (-0.05 - 0.01 )

Derby County's Profit/Loss figures for the POISSON VALUE bracket (-0.05 - 0.01 )

Millwall's Profit/Loss figures for the POISSON VALUE bracket (-0.05 - 0.01 )

Last 3 seasons - SIMILAR ELO Difference

ELO Ratings Historical Chart (Last 3-4 seasons)

Derby County (ELO: 1383) home matches with SIMILAR ELO Difference

Millwall (ELO 1471) away matches with SIMILAR ELO Difference

Derby County's all matches (last 8 matches)

Millwall's all matches (last 8 matches)

Derby County's all matches (last 8 matches)

Millwall's all matches (last 8 matches)

Over 1.5 Goals distribution by rounds (Last 100 rounds)

Championship Full-Time Goals Averages Seasons Summary

Full-Time Goals Averages seasons breakdown

Championship Over 1.5 Goals Averages Seasons Summary

Over 1.5 Goals Averages seasons breakdown

Championship First-Half Goals Averages Seasons Summary

First Half Goals Averages seasons breakdown

Championship Second Half Goals Averages Seasons Summary

Second Half Goals Averages seasons breakdown

Last 2 seasons - Similar League Positions Matches

Last 2 seasons - 22 vs 14 in the table

Derby County matches against table positions: 13,14,15

Millwall matches against table positions: 22,23,24

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