Milan vs Fiorentina - Over 1.5 Goals (PRO Data Analysis)
ITALY - Serie A
2025-10-19
19:45:00
Milan13
Fiorentina13
Stadio Giuseppe Meazza (Milano)
1.704.075.97Over 1.5 Goals @ 1.29
Serie A Standings#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPtsForm
1Inter75021881015WWWWL
2Napoli7502127515LWLWW
3Roma750273415LWWWL
4Milan641193613DWWWW
5Juventus633095412DDDWW
6Atalanta6240115610DDWWD
7Bologna631295410WDWLW
8Sassuolo731388010DWWLW
9Como62317529DDWDL
10Cremonese623178-19LDDDW
11Cagliari62226608DLWWL
12Udinese622269-38DLLWW
13Torino7223613-78WDLLW
14Lazio621310737DWLLW
15Lecce7133510-56DWDLL
16Parma612337-45LWDLD
17Hellas Verona704329-74DLLDD
18Fiorentina603348-43LDLLD
19Pisa7034310-73DLDLL
20Genoa602439-62LLLDL
LONG TERM MONEY TRENDS HOME/AWAY (LAST 3 SEASONS)
Milan's home matches long term money trends (last 3 seasons)
No of matchesProfit/LossAverage OddsROI %
81.121.3114%
Milan's home matches when WIN odds between 1.6 and 1.8
11-05-24
Milan55 - 1 (2)Cagliari51.50.22W
Milan55 - 1 (2)Cagliari51.50.22W27-01-24Milan62 - 2 (2)Bologna121.50.38W
Milan62 - 2 (2)Bologna121.50.38W17-12-23Milan33 - 0 (1)Monza61.50.24W
Milan33 - 0 (1)Monza61.50.24W30-09-23Milan2(A)2 - 0 (1)Lazio21.50.3W
Milan2(A)2 - 0 (1)Lazio21.50.3W04-06-23Milan63 - 1 (2)Hellas Verona61.50.29W
Milan63 - 1 (2)Hellas Verona61.50.29W23-04-23Milan42 - 0 (0)Lecce61.50.43W
Milan42 - 0 (0)Lecce61.50.43W10-02-23Milan41 - 0 (0)Torino41.5-1L
Milan41 - 0 (0)Torino41.5-1L13-11-22Milan42 - 1 (1)Fiorentina31.50.26W
Milan42 - 1 (1)Fiorentina31.50.26WFiorentina's away matches long term money trends (last 3 seasons)
No of matchesProfit/LossAverage OddsROI %
7-0.831.25-11.86%
Fiorentina's away matches when WIN odds between 5 and 7
04-05-25Roma61 - 0 (0)Fiorentina2(A)1.5-1L
Roma61 - 0 (0)Fiorentina2(A)1.5-1L05-04-25Milan22 - 2 (0)Fiorentina51.50.29W
Milan22 - 2 (0)Fiorentina51.50.29W02-06-24Atalanta62 - 3 (0)Fiorentina31.50.17W
Atalanta62 - 3 (0)Fiorentina31.50.17W07-04-24Juventus41 - 0 (0)Fiorentina31.5-1L
Juventus41 - 0 (0)Fiorentina31.5-1L08-10-23Napoli41 - 3 (1)Fiorentina21.50.22W
Napoli41 - 3 (1)Fiorentina21.50.22W03-09-23Inter54 - 0 (0)Fiorentina21.50.23W
Inter54 - 0 (0)Fiorentina21.50.23W13-11-22Milan42 - 1 (1)Fiorentina31.50.26W
Milan42 - 1 (1)Fiorentina31.50.26W MEDIUM TERM MONEY TRENDS - LAST 10 HOME/AWAY MATCHES
Milan's home matches (last 10 all matches)
No of matchesProfit/LossAverage OddsROI %
10-1.161.26-11.6%
Milan's last 10 home matches
28-09-25Milan42 - 1 (0)Napoli51.50.39W
Milan42 - 1 (0)Napoli51.50.39W14-09-25Milan151 - 0 (0)Bologna141.5-1L
Milan151 - 0 (0)Bologna141.5-1L23-08-25Milan51 - 2 (0)Cremonese61.50.25W
Milan51 - 2 (0)Cremonese61.50.25W24-05-25Milan52 - 0 (0)Monza51.50.14W
Milan52 - 0 (0)Monza51.50.14W09-05-25Milan33 - 1 (2)Bologna41.50.31W
Milan33 - 1 (2)Bologna41.50.31W20-04-25Milan80 - 1 (0)Atalanta61.5-1L
Milan80 - 1 (0)Atalanta61.5-1L05-04-25Milan22 - 2 (0)Fiorentina51.50.29W
Milan22 - 2 (0)Fiorentina51.50.29W15-03-25Milan62 - 1 (0)Como61.50.22W
Milan62 - 1 (0)Como61.50.22W02-03-25Milan2(A)1 - 2 (2)Lazio41.50.24W
Milan2(A)1 - 2 (2)Lazio41.50.24W15-02-25Milan2(A)1 - 0 (0)Hellas Verona61.5-1L
Milan2(A)1 - 0 (0)Hellas Verona61.5-1LFiorentina's away matches (last 10 all matches)
No of matchesProfit/LossAverage OddsROI %
10-1.781.37-17.8%
Fiorentina's last 10 away matches.
28-09-25Pisa2(A)0 - 0 (0)Fiorentina61.5-1L
Pisa2(A)0 - 0 (0)Fiorentina61.5-1L31-08-25Torino50 - 0 (0)Fiorentina21.5-1L
Torino50 - 0 (0)Fiorentina21.5-1L24-08-25Cagliari71 - 1 (1)Fiorentina2(A)1.50.43W
Cagliari71 - 1 (1)Fiorentina2(A)1.50.43W25-05-25Udinese62 - 3 (1)Fiorentina61.50.27W
Udinese62 - 3 (1)Fiorentina61.50.27W12-05-25Venezia92 - 1 (1)Fiorentina31.50.43W
Venezia92 - 1 (1)Fiorentina31.50.43W04-05-25Roma61 - 0 (0)Fiorentina2(A)1.5-1L
Roma61 - 0 (0)Fiorentina2(A)1.5-1L23-04-25Cagliari81 - 2 (0)Fiorentina31.50.37W
Cagliari81 - 2 (0)Fiorentina31.50.37W05-04-25Milan22 - 2 (0)Fiorentina51.50.29W
Milan22 - 2 (0)Fiorentina51.50.29W09-03-25Napoli72 - 1 (0)Fiorentina2(A)1.50.43W
Napoli72 - 1 (0)Fiorentina2(A)1.50.43W23-02-25Hellas Verona71 - 0 (1)Fiorentina61.5-1L
Hellas Verona71 - 0 (1)Fiorentina61.5-1L SHORT TERM MONEY TRENDS - LAST 6 MATCHES
Milan's all matches (last 6 matches)
No of matchesProfit/LossAverage OddsROI %
6-0.741.32-12.33%
Milan's all matches - last 6
05-10-25Juventus30 - 0 (0)Milan61.5-1L
Juventus30 - 0 (0)Milan61.5-1L28-09-25Milan42 - 1 (0)Napoli51.50.39W
Milan42 - 1 (0)Napoli51.50.39W20-09-25Udinese50 - 3 (0)Milan51.50.23W
Udinese50 - 3 (0)Milan51.50.23W14-09-25Milan151 - 0 (0)Bologna141.5-1L
Milan151 - 0 (0)Bologna141.5-1L29-08-25Lecce50 - 2 (1)Milan51.50.39W
Lecce50 - 2 (1)Milan51.50.39W23-08-25Milan51 - 2 (0)Cremonese61.50.25W
Milan51 - 2 (0)Cremonese61.50.25WFiorentina's all matches (last 6 matches)
No of matchesProfit/LossAverage OddsROI %
6-0.441.4-7.33%
Fiorentina's all matches - last 6
05-10-25Fiorentina21 - 2 (0)Roma21.50.4W
Fiorentina21 - 2 (0)Roma21.50.4W28-09-25Pisa2(A)0 - 0 (0)Fiorentina61.5-1L
Pisa2(A)0 - 0 (0)Fiorentina61.5-1L21-09-25Fiorentina71 - 2 (1)Como51.50.33W
Fiorentina71 - 2 (1)Como51.50.33W13-09-25Fiorentina121 - 3 (1)Napoli131.50.4W
Fiorentina121 - 3 (1)Napoli131.50.4W31-08-25Torino50 - 0 (0)Fiorentina21.5-1L
Torino50 - 0 (0)Fiorentina21.5-1L24-08-25Cagliari71 - 1 (1)Fiorentina2(A)1.50.43W
Cagliari71 - 1 (1)Fiorentina2(A)1.50.43W HEAD TO HEAD + LEAGUE STANDINGS
H2H Matches
No of matchesProfit/LossAverage OddsROI %
60.481.318%
H2H matches - last 6
05-04-25Milan22 - 2 (0)Fiorentina51.50.29W
Milan22 - 2 (0)Fiorentina51.50.29W06-10-24Fiorentina22 - 1 (0)Milan41.50.21W
Fiorentina22 - 1 (0)Milan41.50.21W30-03-24Fiorentina151 - 2 (0)Milan121.50.31W
Fiorentina151 - 2 (0)Milan121.50.31W25-11-23Milan131 - 0 (0)Fiorentina121.5-1L
Milan131 - 0 (0)Fiorentina121.5-1L04-03-23Fiorentina42 - 1 (2)Milan51.50.41W
Fiorentina42 - 1 (2)Milan51.50.41W13-11-22Milan42 - 1 (1)Fiorentina31.50.26W
Milan42 - 1 (1)Fiorentina31.50.26W Serie A Standings#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPtsForm
1Inter75021881015WWWWL
2Napoli7502127515LWLWW
3Roma750273415LWWWL
4Milan641193613DWWWW
5Juventus633095412DDDWW
6Atalanta6240115610DDWWD
7Bologna631295410WDWLW
8Sassuolo731388010DWWLW
9Como62317529DDWDL
10Cremonese623178-19LDDDW
11Cagliari62226608DLWWL
12Udinese622269-38DLLWW
13Torino7223613-78WDLLW
14Lazio621310737DWLLW
15Lecce7133510-56DWDLL
16Parma612337-45LWDLD
17Hellas Verona704329-74DLLDD
18Fiorentina603348-43LDLLD
19Pisa7034310-73DLDLL
20Genoa602439-62LLLDL
POISSON DISTRUBITION & 5% POISSON VALUE BRACKETS (LEAGUE, HOME, AWAY)
Last 6 matches POISSON DISTRIBUTION VALUE parameter for this market is: -23%
LAST 6 MATCHES POISSON DISTRIBUTION MODEL
Poisson Prob. (Eq. odds)Value (Recent Odds)Home xGAway xG
0.55 (1.82)-0.23 (1.29)1.530.31
Serie A Profit/Loss figures for the POISSON VALUE bracket (-0.26 - -0.21 )
No of matchesProfit/LossAverage OddsROI %
444.921.3511.18%
Home + Away Poisson Value Brackets Breakdown
Milan's Profit/Loss figures for the POISSON VALUE bracket (-0.26 - -0.21 )
No of matchesProfit/LossAverage OddsROI %
10.311.3131.00%
17-03-24-0.25Hellas Verona61 - 3 (1)Milan2(A)1.50.31W
-0.25Hellas Verona61 - 3 (1)Milan2(A)1.50.31WFiorentina's Profit/Loss figures for the POISSON VALUE bracket (-0.26 - -0.21 )
No of matchesProfit/LossAverage OddsROI %
20.771.3938.50%
29-12-24-0.21Juventus62 - 2 (1)Fiorentina51.50.37W
-0.21Juventus62 - 2 (1)Fiorentina51.50.37W20-10-24-0.21Lecce140 - 6 (0)Fiorentina131.50.4W
-0.21Lecce140 - 6 (0)Fiorentina131.50.4WELO RATINGS - LEAGUE TRENDS
Last 3 seasons - SIMILAR ELO Difference
No of matchesProfit/LossAverage OddsROI %
68-5.421.37-7.97%
ELO Ratings Historical Chart (Last 3-4 seasons)
ELO ratings difference for this fixture: 82 - SIMILAR DIFFERENCE (PAST MATCHES OF BOTH TEAMS)
Milan (ELO: 1804) home matches with SIMILAR ELO Difference
No of matchesProfit/LossAverage OddsROI %
81.281.3316%
29-12-2486Milan81 - 1Roma61.50.29W
86Milan81 - 1Roma61.50.29W17-08-24100Milan102 - 2Torino51.50.28W
100Milan102 - 2Torino51.50.28W14-01-2464Milan33 - 1Roma31.50.43W
64Milan33 - 1Roma31.50.43W25-11-2377Milan131 - 0Fiorentina121.5-1L
77Milan131 - 0Fiorentina121.5-1L30-09-2387Milan2(A)2 - 0Lazio21.50.3W
87Milan2(A)2 - 0Lazio21.50.3W06-05-2365Milan22 - 0Lazio21.50.39W
65Milan22 - 0Lazio21.50.39W26-02-2360Milan72 - 0Atalanta61.50.3W
60Milan72 - 0Atalanta61.50.3W08-01-23103Milan32 - 2Roma31.50.29W
103Milan32 - 2Roma31.50.29WFiorentina (ELO 1721) away matches with SIMILAR ELO Difference
No of matchesProfit/LossAverage OddsROI %
8-0.061.33-0.75%
09-03-2586Napoli72 - 1Fiorentina2(A)1.50.43W
86Napoli72 - 1Fiorentina2(A)1.50.43W26-01-2561Lazio21 - 2Fiorentina61.50.31W
61Lazio21 - 2Fiorentina61.50.31W29-12-2477Juventus62 - 2Fiorentina51.50.37W
77Juventus62 - 2Fiorentina51.50.37W02-06-2459Atalanta62 - 3Fiorentina31.50.17W
59Atalanta62 - 3Fiorentina31.50.17W07-04-2472Juventus41 - 0Fiorentina31.5-1L
72Juventus41 - 0Fiorentina31.5-1L25-11-2377Milan131 - 0Fiorentina121.5-1L
77Milan131 - 0Fiorentina121.5-1L29-01-23103Lazio41 - 1Fiorentina71.50.24W
103Lazio41 - 1Fiorentina71.50.24W15-01-2392Roma22 - 0Fiorentina21.50.42W
92Roma22 - 0Fiorentina21.50.42WSAME NUMBER OF REST DAYS IN THE PAST - RECENT MATCHES
Milan's all matches (last 8 matches)
No of matchesProfit/LossAverage OddsROI %
3-1.831.3-61%
23-11-24Milan130 - 0Juventus131.5-1L
Milan130 - 0Juventus131.5-1L14-09-24Milan134 - 0Venezia141.50.17W
Milan134 - 0Venezia141.50.17W25-11-23Milan131 - 0Fiorentina121.5-1L
Milan131 - 0Fiorentina121.5-1LFiorentina's all matches (last 8 matches)
No of matchesProfit/LossAverage OddsROI %
60.571.319.5%
30-03-25Fiorentina131 - 0Atalanta131.5-1L
Fiorentina131 - 0Atalanta131.5-1L24-11-24Como160 - 2Fiorentina131.50.3W
Como160 - 2Fiorentina131.50.3W20-10-24Lecce140 - 6Fiorentina131.50.4W
Lecce140 - 6Fiorentina131.50.4W15-09-24Atalanta153 - 2Fiorentina131.50.28W
Atalanta153 - 2Fiorentina131.50.28W17-09-23Fiorentina133 - 2Atalanta141.50.29W
Fiorentina133 - 2Atalanta141.50.29W04-01-23Fiorentina131 - 1Monza121.50.3W
Fiorentina131 - 1Monza121.50.3WHOW DID THEY DO THIS TIME IN LAST YEARS IN THIS COMPETITION (Last 4 Seasons)
Milan's all matches (last 8 matches)
No of matchesProfit/LossAverage OddsROI %
6-1.021.27-17%
19-10-24Milan121 - 0Udinese131.5-1L
Milan121 - 0Udinese131.5-1L22-10-23Milan140 - 1Juventus141.5-1L
Milan140 - 1Juventus141.5-1L22-10-22Milan54 - 1Monza2(A)1.50.25W
Milan54 - 1Monza2(A)1.50.25W16-10-22Hellas Verona61 - 2Milan41.50.23W
Hellas Verona61 - 2Milan41.50.23W23-10-21Bologna52 - 4Milan31.50.25W
Bologna52 - 4Milan31.50.25W16-10-21Milan123 - 2Hellas Verona121.50.25W
Milan123 - 2Hellas Verona121.50.25WFiorentina's all matches (last 8 matches)
No of matchesProfit/LossAverage OddsROI %
60.591.329.83%
20-10-24Lecce140 - 6Fiorentina131.50.4W
Lecce140 - 6Fiorentina131.50.4W23-10-23Fiorentina140 - 2Empoli161.50.22W
Fiorentina140 - 2Empoli161.50.22W22-10-22Fiorentina43 - 4Inter51.50.28W
Fiorentina43 - 4Inter51.50.28W17-10-22Lecce71 - 1Fiorentina31.50.41W
Lecce71 - 1Fiorentina31.50.41W24-10-21Fiorentina53 - 0Cagliari61.50.28W
Fiorentina53 - 0Cagliari61.50.28W18-10-21Venezia161 - 0Fiorentina141.5-1L
Venezia161 - 0Fiorentina141.5-1LLeague Trends By Game Week
Over 1.5 Goals distribution by rounds (Last 100 rounds)
Leagues Seasons Stats (FT Goals + Over 1.5 Goals)
Serie A Full-Time Goals Averages Seasons Summary
3 seasons AVGCurrent season AVGLast 100 matches AVGLast 30 matches AVG
2.582.272.52.3
Full-Time Goals Averages seasons breakdown
2025/2026Serie A642.27
Serie A642.272024/2025Serie A3802.56
Serie A3802.562023/2024Serie A3802.61
Serie A3802.612022/2023Serie A3812.57
Serie A3812.572021/2022Serie A3802.87
Serie A3802.87Serie A Over 1.5 Goals Averages Seasons Summary
3 seasons AVGCurrent season AVGLast 100 matches AVGLast 30 matches AVG
74.58%1.3465.63%1.5273%1.3766.67%1.5
Over 1.5 Goals Averages seasons breakdown
2025/2026Serie A6465.63% 1.52
Serie A6465.63% 1.522024/2025Serie A38073.95% 1.35
Serie A38073.95% 1.352023/2024Serie A38074.47% 1.34
Serie A38074.47% 1.342022/2023Serie A38175.33% 1.33
Serie A38175.33% 1.332021/2022Serie A38078.16% 1.28
Serie A38078.16% 1.28 Leagues Seasons Stats (1st & 2nd Half Goals)
Serie A First-Half Goals Averages Seasons Summary
3 seasons AVGCurrent season AVGLast 100 matches AVGLast 30 matches AVG
1.141.031.271.08
First Half Goals Averages seasons breakdown
2025/2026Serie A641.03
Serie A641.032024/2025Serie A3801.12
Serie A3801.122023/2024Serie A3801.13
Serie A3801.132022/2023Serie A3811.16
Serie A3811.162021/2022Serie A3801.30
Serie A3801.30Serie A Second Half Goals Averages Seasons Summary
3 seasons AVGCurrent season AVGLast 100 matches AVGLast 30 matches AVG
1.441.231.031.42
Second Half Goals Averages seasons breakdown
2025/2026Serie A641.23
Serie A641.232024/2025Serie A3801.44
Serie A3801.442023/2024Serie A3801.48
Serie A3801.482022/2023Serie A3811.40
Serie A3811.402021/2022Serie A3801.57
Serie A3801.57League Positions - Stats
Last 2 seasons - Similar League Positions Matches
No of matchesProfit/LossAverage OddsROI %
18-6.331.28-35.17%
Last 2 seasons - 4 vs 18 in the table
No of matchesProfit/LossAverage OddsROI %
30.891.329.67%
Teams VS similar league position +/- 1 position STATS
Milan matches against table positions: 18,19,20
No of matchesProfit/LossAverage OddsROI %
40.61.1515%
24-05-259Milan52 - 020Monza51.50.14W
9Milan52 - 020Monza51.50.14W11-01-258Milan41 - 118Cagliari51.50.2W
8Milan41 - 118Cagliari51.50.2W14-09-2417Milan134 - 020Venezia141.50.17W
17Milan134 - 020Venezia141.50.17W25-05-242Milan63 - 320Salernitana41.50.09W
2Milan63 - 320Salernitana41.50.09WFiorentina matches against table positions: 3,4,5
No of matchesProfit/LossAverage OddsROI %
6-0.671.34-11.17%
26-01-254Lazio21 - 28Fiorentina61.50.31W
4Lazio21 - 28Fiorentina61.50.31W02-06-244Atalanta62 - 38Fiorentina31.50.17W
4Atalanta62 - 38Fiorentina31.50.17W07-04-243Juventus41 - 010Fiorentina31.5-1L
3Juventus41 - 010Fiorentina31.5-1L14-02-245Bologna22 - 07Fiorentina21.50.47W
5Bologna22 - 07Fiorentina21.50.47W10-12-235Roma61 - 18Fiorentina31.50.38W
5Roma61 - 18Fiorentina31.50.38W25-11-234Milan131 - 06Fiorentina121.5-1L
4Milan131 - 06Fiorentina121.5-1L